CAN TINUBU SAVE APC?

By Akeem Abdul

                           Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

The All Progressives Congress (APC) is in a deep crisis. The party is at the brink of collapse. President Muhammadu Buhari acknowledges this fact hence he called on Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu to come to the rescue. The briefing PMB gave Tinubu is simple, "reconcile all differences and make our party stronger ahead of 2019."

                            Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu

What a tall order in the face of the threats by party's "big boys" to dump the party and move on. 

There is no doubt that this is a daunting challenge to Tinubu, the man on whose shoulder and brain the party emerged. PMB is a wise politician for calling on no other personality but Tinubu to fix the mess.

What are the issues at stake. 

Three stalwarts of the party, Senate President Bukola Saraki, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Gov Aminu Tambuwal have allegedly asked PMB to dump his second term agenda given the body language of Nigerians who seem pissed off by the hardship and killings of the last 24 months. The trio argue that a Buhari candidacy will not sell thus, sending the party back to opposition era and status. 

Another issue is the continuous faceoff between the Presidency and the Senate over the attitude of some ministers and heads of government agencies in the area of oversight functions of the upper legislative house. The cold war over the confirmation of EFCC Chairman, Ibrahim Magu and conflict with Comptroller General of Nigeria Customs Service, Col. Hameed Ali  (rted) are few of the problems and examples.

Meanwhile, the posture of the executive in painting National Assembly particularly the Senate as corrupt is also a major concern attempting to consume the party. On the other hand, Tinubu himself has some old scores to settle, not only with Saraki whom he labeled "treacherous" for manipulating the Senate and conspiring with the opposition party (PDP) members to install himself Senate President and National Assembly chairman....but also Chief Odigie Oyegun who Tinubu wants out as party chairman.

How will Tinubu face these men in this truce call cum assignment? Will they trust him and listen to him? What of the ambition of some of these gladiators? Kwankwaso according to close sources is yet to forgive Tinubu for convincing party's chieftain and delegates in 2015 to settle for PMB in the primary election. Now Kwankwaso is bent on actualising his dream and ambition of flying the party's flag as presidential candidate come 2019. On his part, Tambuwal is said to be aggrieved over the failure of Tinubu to fulfil their bargain of putting him forward to succeed PMB in 2019 as secretly agreed during the formation stage of APC.

With these conflicting intetests and personal agendas of these "big boys", it is left to be seen how Tinubu plans to manouver things to fix the situation and ailing party. Pundits opine that,  PMB's call on Tinubu to reconcile all aggrieved persons is a tact to escape the heat of the pressure within the party for him to step down. Again, it is to test the loyalty of Tinubu who himself only reconciled with PMB late last year. It is also to weigh how much influence, power and control Tinubu still has on the party which both men formed.

The statement by former President, Dr. Olusegun Obasanjo asking Tinubu to say the things he says about PMB behind in the open could also have informed PMB's decision to gauge the trust of his friend, Tinubu with this peace assignment. Those who know say, the task is not only herculean but unachievable. They suggest that the big boys have their minds made up and surprises up their sleeves.

Part of the surprise is to either go with Obasanjo’s Coalition for Nigeria Movement a.k.a Third Force or float their own political party. This rules out a return to PDP even with their cards and options still wide and open. So what are the likely strategies of peace for Tinubu to keep these men in the party yet pave way for PMB to secure his second term bid? Perhaps, the strategies come in form of options.... to either allow the trio of Saraki, Kwankwaso and Tambuwal to quietly leave the party or look straight into the eyes of PMB and ask him to save the party by jettisoning his 2019 plans.

Surely, the second option sounds like aligning with the earlier calls by Obasanjo and former Military-President Ibrahim Badamasi for PMB to step aside. Will Tinubu advice PMB to do that? This is the dilemma of Asiwaju on whose neck the weight and survival of the party now hang. This could be a confirmation of the position of many in the early days of APC....that the party is an association of strange bed fellows who may not last the race. Not even in the 16-year rule of PDP was the party faced with such scary challenge until the 2015 election. In just 33 months the APC is already engulfed with a 'life-threatening' crisis as many believe that the party is already on life-support.....Can Tinubu be the doctor to save APC?....Only time can tell...